Introduction
Lead time is one of the numbers buyers most often ask about and most often plan wrong. The 30 days a factory quotes is rarely the 30 days that pass between deposit and delivery.
This article covers what actually happens during a production lead time, and where the difference between quoted and real usually enters.
The Standard Lead Time Structure
For an existing product with a confirmed sample:
- Deposit received to material procurement — 3–7 days
- Material arrival to production start — 5–14 days
- Production run — 15–45 days depending on order size
- Quality inspection and packaging — 3–7 days
- Ready for shipment — total 30–75 days
For a custom product with tooling:
- Tooling manufacture — 20–45 additional days before production begins
Sample lead time (before production) is a separate 10–30 days.
Where Delays Actually Enter
Real projects rarely follow the quoted timeline exactly. The most common delay sources:
Chinese New Year — factories close for 2–4 weeks in late January or February. Orders placed in November and December often push into March delivery. Plan around it.
Material shortages — commodity prices spike, upstream suppliers run behind, and the factory’s promised start date slips. This shows up as “waiting for materials” in weekly updates.
Larger customer priority — a supplier serving both small and large customers will often reallocate capacity when a big customer places a rush order. Small buyers absorb the delay quietly.
Quality rejections — production is complete but the buyer’s inspection rejects a batch. Rework adds 5–15 days.
Sample iteration — the “one sample round” the buyer planned turns into three. Each round adds a week.
What Realistic Planning Looks Like
For a first order, add 25–40% to the factory’s quoted lead time as buffer. For orders around Chinese New Year, add more.
For repeat orders with an established supplier, quoted lead time becomes more accurate — the buyer has learned where this specific supplier’s flexibility and delays live.
Compressing Lead Time
Legitimate ways to reduce lead time:
- Pay for material inventory to be held on hand
- Prepay a larger portion of the order for production priority
- Split production across two factories in the same cluster
- Use air freight instead of sea
Ways that damage quality:
- Pushing the factory to skip quality checkpoints
- Compressing the production window without changing scope
The first list works. The second list produces defect rates that erase the time savings.
FAQ
What is a typical lead time for a first order? For an existing product: 60–90 days from deposit to arrival at your warehouse, sea freight included. Custom products with tooling: 90–150 days.
Does Chinese New Year really cause 2 months of delay? Around the two-week factory closure, both production and shipping capacity are constrained. Orders placed in early December often arrive in March or April.
Is faster always more expensive? Not always. Sometimes shorter lead time comes from a supplier with spare capacity, at the same price. Sometimes it costs 20–30% more. Ask specifically.
Plan Lead Times That Match Reality
Realistic lead-time planning is one of the least glamorous parts of sourcing and one of the most important. If you would like Hansen to build a production schedule against your delivery target, start a project.